• Definition of Risk; Sources, Examples, Base Statistics
• Exposure Assessment: Agents, routes/mechanisms, methods, sampling
• Review of Health Risk Assessment: Concepts, Hazard Identification, Dose-Response, Risk Characterization
• Quantifying Variability and Uncertainty in Data and Model Inputs: Philosophical Framework, Role of Judgment, Developing Distribution Assumptions
• Propagating Variability and Uncertainty Through Models: Analytical and Approximation Methods, Numerical Methods, Model Uncertainty
• Issues in Risk Management: Decision Analysis, Comparative Risk Analysis, Ecological Aspects, Risk Perception

Homework: Approximately 6-8 assignments

Exams: Mid-Term and a Final

Software Requirements: Students are expected to have access to a Windows-based PC or equivalent and to be able to use spreadsheets, access reports via the web.

Readings in Risk, T.S. Glickman and M. Gough, Editors, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 1990, ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (paperback)

Alison C. Cullen and H. Christopher Frey, Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs, Plenum: New York , 1999. ISBN 0-306-45957-4 (paperback).

1. Introduction (2 week)

Definition of Risk; Sources of Risk
Selected Examples of Risk Analysis
Review of Base Statistics
Basics of Statistical Models

2. Exposure Assessment (2.5 weeks)

Risk Agents
Modeling Methods for Release Assessment
Routes/Mechanisms of Exposure
Methods of Exposure Assessment
Modeling Approaches
Environmental Monitoring and Sampling
Case Studies

3. Review of Health Risk Assessment (2.5 weeks)

Concepts of Physiology, Toxicology, Epidemiology
Hazard Identification/Cancer Risks/Non-Cancer Endpoints/Carcinogen Classification
Dose-Response Models
Extrapolation - Animal/Man; Toxicity/Potency
Pharmacokinetic Models
Risk Characterization
Case Studies

4. Quantifying Variability and Uncertainty in Data and Model Inputs (3 weeks)

Importance of the Distinction Between Variability and Uncertainty
Philosophical Framework - Frequentist, Bayesian, Others
Role of Judgment - Data Analysis, Expert Elicitation
Developing Distribution Assumptions Using Expert Judgment
Developing Distribution Assumptions Based Upon Statistical Analysis
Bayesian Methods

5. Propagating Variability and Uncertainty Through Models (2 weeks)

Analytical and Approximation Methods
Numerical Methods
Two-Dimensional Methods
Numerical Experiments, Software, and Demonstration
Model Uncertainty
Value of Information
Case Studies

6. Issues in Risk Management (2 weeks)

Decision Analysis & Risk-Based Decision Process
Comparative Risk Analysis
Ecological Aspects of Risk Assessment
Risk Perception/Communication/Acceptability
Policy Management Implications

NCSU has recommended minimum specifications for computers used for classes. Depending on your computer needs, we recommend your computer meet or exceed the following minimum specifications below.

PCs must have an Intel-compatible 800 MHz processor, 256 MB RAM, 8 GB hard drive with 1 GB free space available, 256 Color Display, CD-ROM drive, 800x600 (min.) video adapter, sound card, and speakers. The operating system should be Windows 2000 or XP. Real One Player Basic (available free online) and high speed Internet connection such as cable, DSL, T1 or LAN will be required for EOL courses.

MAC users must have a G3 processor with firewire and USB factory built-in, 256 MB RAM, 10 GB with 1GB free space available, 256 Color Display, CD-ROM drive, 800x600 (min) video adapter, sound card, and speakers. The operating system must be MacOS 10.3 (minimum) along with the above RealOne and Internet specifications above .

For more detailed information on computer specifications and recommendations, please refer to our website at: http://engineeringonline.ncsu.edu/currentstudents/computeraccess.htm

Dr. H. Christopher Frey, Professor
Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
Mann Hall 308, Box 7908
Phone: (919) 515-1155
Fax: (919) 515-7908
E-mail: frey@ncsu.edu
Personal Page: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~frey/